🔵 February NFP beat but shadowed by higher unemployment rate and reduced wage growth.
🔵 Retail sales regained growth after January drawdown.
🔵 Shelter and gasoline costs ramped up inflation to stay above 3%.
🔵 Expected NFP attrition and delayed reflection of lower shelter cost will gradually weigh on inflation.
🔵 US faces potential commercial property and corporate debt crisis.

🔵 CPI and PCE in January flagged uneased inflation pressure on tough shelter and service costs.

🔵 Stronger than expected January non-farm payroll and wage growth buoy labor market.

🔵 Back-to-strength manufacturing PMI energizes US economy.

🔵 Retarding consumer retail sales growth and consumer credit

🔵 CPI edged up slightly in December due to energy rally against slowing core inflation.

🔵 Strong non-farm payroll and wage growth underscore the tight labor market condition in US.

🔵 Retail sales up 0.6%mom and continue to provide an upthrust to US economic growth.

🔵 The Fed fund rate maintained at 5.5% and the market expects 75 b.p. – 125 b.p. rate cut for 2024.
🔵 CPI slowed to 3.1% and PCE dropped to 2.6% due to falling commodities and energy prices.
🔵 Strong NFP and lower unemployment rate affirm the soft landing view.
🔵 Ongoing QT will reduce M2 by a further $1.5 trillion and hamper US economy.

🔵 The Fed paused rate hike again in November mainly due to excessive surge of bond yield.
🔵 Fall in energy prices slashed U.S. CPI and core CPI to 3.2% and 4%yoy respectively.
🔵 Resilient consumer spending backed by strong employment and low debt burden.
🔵 Slipping of new nonfarm payroll and hourly wage growth, PMI, retail sales and excess

🔵 September nonfarm payrolls soar to 336,000, showing the enduring job market tightness.
🔵 Headline inflation heated up to 3.7% driven by rising shelter cost and energy prices.
🔵 U.S. retail sales advanced more than expected in September, marking 6-month gains in a row.

🔵 Fed conveyed Hawkish stance by maintaining rate higher for longer and aiming at two cuts in 2024.
🔵 UAW strike, government shutdown, student loan and higher oil price will dampen US economy.
🔵 Inflation is poised to rebound in the short term but to stay with assured downtrend.

🔵 July headline CPI at 3.2% and core CPI at 4.7% purports Fed’s rate freeze in September.
🔵 Strong labor market boosts spending and U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 3.7% in Q3.
🔵 Inflation may rebound gently due to higher oil prices and UAW strikes.