MONTHLY NEWSLETTER

Monthly Newsletter

Resilient inflation, robust employment, and a Hawkish Fed pivot

Highlights
🔵May CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% — the highest since April 2023 — driven overwhelmingly by energy prices.
🔵Core CPI showed signs of cooling, rising only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, with slower gains in shelter and food, alongside declines in transportation services and new vehicles, reflecting weak consumer demand.
🔵US nonfarm payrolls added a robust 172,000 jobs in May, beating expectations, with strong gains in leisure & hospitality (boosted by the World Cup) and healthcare.

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Monthly Newsletter

Inflation intensifies amid energy price shock, though diplomatic horizons offer a faint glimmer

Highlights
🔵Headline CPI accelerated sharply in April to 3.8% YoY and 0.6% MoM, up from March’s 3.3% and 0.3%, primarily driven by surging energy costs following the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
🔵The U.S. labor market remained resilient, adding a solid 115,000 nonfarm payrolls in April after March’s strong 185,000 gain, with the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
🔵Oil prices corrected modestly after President Trump announced the postponement of a major military strike on Iran and signaled peace talks are in the final stages.

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Monthly Newsletter

Ceasefire, blockade, and AI heat drive epic reversal of equities and commodities

Highlights
🔵Inflation accelerated in March, with the CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month fanned by higher energy prices from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
🔵Nonfarm payroll added 178,000 jobs in March, recovering from a 133,000 decline in February.
🔵Oil prices exhibit heavy swing amid ceasefire and the strait blockade.

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Monthly Newsletter

Market reels as stagflation fear and prolonged Iran-US-Israel conflict intensify

Highlight

🔵Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February—the third decline in five months—with unemployment rising to 4.4%, the highest since November of the prior year.
🔵 Oilprices hit six-month highs (Brent ~$71.70, WTI ~$66.50) as President Trump signals an imminent strike on Iran’s nuclear program.
🔵 Brent crude surged over 23% to $110/bbl, gold tumbled 16–20%, silver plunged 22–30%, driven by the Federal Reserve’s pivot to higher-for-longer rates, a strong dollar, and fears of reduced industrial demand.

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Monthly Newsletter

Longer rate hold, AI disruption fear, Iran tension and tariff invalidation stir up the market

Highlight

🔵January NFP rebounded to +130,000, improving on Dec’s revised +48,000, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, yet strength is contested due to massive prior downward revisions.
🔵 Headline CPI cooled to 2.4% YoY and core CPI to 2.5% YoY, with broad-based relief across food, energy, shelter, and used cars.
🔵 Oilprices hit six-month highs (Brent ~$71.70, WTI ~$66.50) as President Trump signals an imminent strike on Iran’s nuclear program.

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Monthly Newsletter

Crosscurrents of stasis: sticky inflation, a faltering labor market, and the loomingshadow of tariffs

Highlight

🔵US December CPI remained stagnant at 2.7% year-over-year as rising food and shelter costs offset falling energy prices, with core inflation holding steady at 2.6% despite mixed sectoral trends like holiday-driven airfare spikes and declining used vehicle prices.
🔵The US labor market exhibited mixed dynamics with the weakest annual job growth since 2020 (adding only 50,000 jobs in December), yet the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% as service sectors added positions while manufacturing, construction, and retail cut jobs.
🔵The Greenland acquisition hiccup has ignited a conflict that menaces U.S.- EU trade with the prospect of severe tariffs.

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Monthly Newsletter

Disinflation illusions, labor market woes, and the Genesis of AI-led dominance

Highlight

🔵 November CPI eased to 2.7%YoY yet distorted by Black Friday discounts and October owners’ equivalent rent (OER) adjustment.
🔵Jitter on sharp October and September downward nonfarm payroll adjustment and higher unemployment rate belie euphoria on the better-than-expected November nonfarm payroll growth.
🔵The Genesis Mission is instituted to pull off a new epoch of American-led technological and economic prosperity leveraging AI investment, holding the potential to inject an additional $1 to $2 trillion into U.S. GDP by 2035.

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Monthly Newsletter

Under a bleak cloud: a toxic mix of layoffs, liquidity squeeze, and hawkish Feddarkens the horizon

Highlight

🔵 Asignificant wave of layoffs, led by tech sector restructuring and spreading to other industries, signals a rapidly deteriorating US labor market yet September nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000.

🔵The 43-day U.S. government shutdown (Oct 1–Nov 12/13, 2025) acted as a massive liquidity drain, pressuring stocks (S&P-4%) and crypto (Bitcoin-20%); estimated 1.5pp drag on Q4 GDP, with risk
of another shutdown in 2026.
🔵 Hawkish Fed rhetoric and a post-shutdown economic data blackout have significantly reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut.

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Monthly Newsletter

Walking a fine line with rate cut amid US-China agnostic economic tangle, courttariff battle and a subdued labor market

Highlight

🔵 USinflation pressure eased and tariff pass-through remained at the modest level.

🔵The September ADP unveiled a shrinking labor market, shedding 32,000 jobs—worst since March 2023—hitting small businesses hard in services and hospitality.

🔵 The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor revealed a chic 0.66% dip in September 2025 sales (ex-autos/gas), yet a nice 5.42% yearly surge, outshining August, buoyed by wealth-fueled households.

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