Highlight

🔵 April 2025 saw 177K new jobs, with steady unemployment (4.2%) albeit slowing wage growth (0.2% monthly), underscoring labor market resilience.

🔵Inflation eased slightly with April CPI rising 2.3% YoY (core CPI 2.8%), the lowest since 2021. Shelter costs drove increases, but “super-core” inflation (services ex-shelter) fell to 3.01%.

🔵 April retail sales grew just 0.1%, down from March’s 1.7%, as tariff uncertainty dampened consumer spending, especially in autos.

Executive summary
U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed an aggressive tariff escalation of 145%
against China and 10% to 50% for other nations to reduce the U.S.’s $1.2 trillion
trade deficit. The world economy and capital markets have entered a tumultuous
period when the trade war is flaring.

Highlight

🔵Thelast mile of inflation stayed murky with hotter-than-expected print of 3%YoY and 0.5%MoM.

🔵Persistent yet smaller January NFP add, sound wage growth and lower unemployment rate render strength to the labor market.

🔵US December retail sales remain steadfast, bolstered by robust wage growth.

Highlight

🔵The scorching NFP hike and lowered unemployment rate diminished the pressing need for rate cuts.

🔵A moderation in core CPI has revitalized confidence in the disinflation narrative.

🔵US December retail sales remain steadfast, bolstered by robust wage growth.

Executive summary
Global trade has historically contributed to low inflation by creating deflationary supply
chains. However, Trump tariffs is set to raise goods costs, trigger retaliatory tariffs,
strengthen the USD, and increase wage inflation, leading to overall higher inflation. High
USfederal deficits could raise Treasury yields, pressuring asset prices, particularly stocks
and bonds, while commodities and cryptocurrency will become the sweet pots.

Highlight

🔵Thelabor market showed mixed signals, with November’s NFP rising to 227,000, while theunemployment rate increased to 4.2% and the overall employment figures declined.

🔵Headline inflation edged up and core inflation leveled off year over year, hindering progress in disinflation.

🔵Retail sales vaulted 3.8% YoY and 0.7% MoM in November, underscoring resilience in the US economy.

Highlight

🔵US headline inflation perked up to 2.6%YoY due to food, used cars and shelter costs hike.

🔵October NFP buckled to 12000 due to the recent hurricanes and the dockworkers’ strike.

🔵Sustained strong wage growth shouldered retail sales and was auspicious for US Q3 GDP growth.

Highlight

🔵US inflation softened to 2.4%YoY with loosening energy and housing pressure amid small goods uptick.

🔵Ultra high September NFP and lighter unemployment rate were due to the sharp seasonaly growth of government hires while the private sector openings were imploding.

🔵Sustained strong wage growth shouldered retail sales and was auspicious for US Q3 GDP growth.

Highlights

🔵 The continued flunking of NFP in August and sizable cutbacks of the previous two months prints risk sending US economy reeling despite the unemployment rate ticked down.

🔵 US August CPI relented to 2.5%YoY, but core CPI balked at 3.2%YoY as shelter and transportation costs spiked.

🔵 Encouraging US August retail sales (2.1%YoY) and average hourly wage (3.8%YoY) in August added confidence to the benign US economy standing.